NOTE: This will be a multi-part series. This email is the most important concept we've ever shared with you, please share these emails with everyone you know in HB, Vote Splitting is how our elections have been stolen for years, once you see the strategy you and your friends and family will know how to defeat it.
Now that the 2022 Huntington Beach city council election race is set Save Surf City is beginning an in-depth series on vote splitting, a strategy to unethically tip the election scales for certain candidates. Vote splitting happens everywhere to certain degrees but it has been endemic in HB in past years and has exploded in 2022.
We will be unraveling the practice of vote splitting and naming (and shaming) the candidates who are running in our local election solely to hurt specific candidates.
In 2022 we have an excellent opportunity to elect 4 grassroots candidates to the council, but only if we understand and confront the intentional manipulation of the voting public and take action to stop it.
As of today Republicans represent exactly 40% of the electorate. NPPs, which are predominantly center-right, 21.9% and Democrats are 31.4%. The remaining mixed voters total 5.71%.
So, Right to Center-Right voters represent roughly 60% the total electorate. In practical terms that means, if everything is equal and fair, NO DEMOCRAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO WIN A SEAT IN HUNTINGTON BEACH.
The only way the Democrats continue to dominate our local politics is vote splitting on the Republican side.
In HB, Vote Splitting almost always helps Democrats and ALWAYS hurts grassroots Republicans. To begin, what is Vote Splitting?, here’s how Wikipedia describes it:
“Vote splitting is an electoral effect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate.”
In plain language, vote splitting is where a particular candidate, or group of candidates, runs in an election solely to steal votes from one, or another group of candidates, to aid other candidates in that race.
So clearly Vote Splitting is Voter Manipulation. It is a concerted effort to confuse and disenfranchise the HB voter by running fake candidates.
18 candidates are running for 4 City Council seats in 2022 (24 people pulled papers but 6 did not return them). Five are listed as Democrats, the others are listed in the voter records as Republicans, Independents or Non-Party Preference. HB practices the fiction of a “non-partisan election” so candidate's political parties aren't listed on the ballot, adding to the confusion.
Fully 8 out of 18 candidates in 2022 are unknowns. Ask yourself, what would motivate so many unknown people to run right now?
What are the characteristics of a Vote Splitter candidate? They are unknown in local political circles, they come out of nowhere to run, they never talk openly about politics or their "passion for change", they have no visible campaigns (website, speaking engagements, fundraising) and most telling…they are overwhelmingly Republicans and occasionally Non Party Preference (NPP).
It might also be said that Billy O'Connell and Brian Burley are in a special category of Vote Splitters. They only appear around election time then when the election is over they disappear. They don't serve on community boards and don't participate in the way committed grassroots candidates do. Hilariously, after many people accused Brian Burley of avoiding service on a board or commission to gain experience he started campaigning saying "not serving on commissions is actually better because I'm not in anyone's pockets"
This shift in increasing vote splitting is obviously disturbing, lets look at the trend from the last 4 elections:
11 candidates for 4 seats. In 2014 the big story was huge money coming from the Chamber of Commerce to elect Delgleize, Posey and O'Connell. Erik Peterson won the grassroots with $2 per vote, it took the other three $22 a vote to win. Notice that the Democrats, Boardman, Shaw and Bixby, ran as a team for the available 4 seats with 8 candidates splitting the vote on the other side. It's only because of the huge amounts of money involved that the Republicans swept the 4 seats. The Democrats had a powerful advantage that they squandered because of the public's anger towards incumbents Boardman and Shaw for their actions on the HBCC.
10 candidates for 3 seats. Vote splitting exploded in 2016. Karen Leighton, Mark Rolfes and Mariann Ettorre were complete unknowns and have all disappeared since losing. Together they stole 17.6% of the vote and all 3 were Republicans. This allowed HB Chamber President Patrick Brenden to beat grassroots candidate Ron Sterud.
15 candidates for 4 seats. Ballot harvesting reared its ugly head in this election. Kim Carr, a virtual unknown who had toiled away on an obscure board managed to beat popular incumbent Erik Peterson, Carr was the beneficiary of $20 million of DNC PAC money for harvested votes plus big POA union money and a focused Democrat team that only ran 4 candidates for 4 seats (Carr, Lathus, Kalmick & Ellis). This left 11 candidates, all Republican save Amory Hanson who runs as a NPP, to split the remaining votes. RINOs Delgleize and Posey won with incumbent name recognition and massive injections of cash from the Chamber of Commerce and developers.
15 candidates for 3 seats. The Democrats really honed their disciplined game in 2020. They ran 3 candidates for 3 seats (Kalmick, Moser & Rodriguez). Tito Ortiz blew up their math when he announced and the Police Union (POA) panicked. They had successfully supported Carr and wanted Kalmick in office badly. Kalmick was an electoral loser having run and lost 3 times, they knew the only way he could win was to attach him to Tito's coattails so they spent massive amounts on this mailer:
Their stunt worked, Tito received more votes than any other candidate in HB history and the POA mailer dragged Kalmick across the line. Big money from the Fireman's Union helped complete unknown Natalie Moser win, a beneficiary of money and a disciplined Democrat vote. Remember, the only way unknowns win is dark $$$. The remaining votes were split between 12 candidates and the grassroots candidates all lost. 2020 is the prime example of how vote splitting ensures bad candidates win our elections.
The only way the Democrats continue to dominate our local politics is vote splitting on the Republican side. Now, remember what we learned at the beginning of this email:
In 2022 the Democrats are running a disciplined 5 candidates for 4 seats and happily letting 13 candidates split the vote for them.
Could it be that, after the worst 4 years of governance in HB history the people behind the curtain are panicked that 4 solid grassroots candidates have a chance to win a quorum and unravel the damage done?
Now, you see how Vote Splitting steals our elections. It's a simple math problem, too many Republicans ensures a victory for the Democrats.